AGP Executive Report

BRICS Diplomacy for Trade & Security: PM Narendra Modi wrapped a fast 3-day run of 15 bilateral meetings on BRICS sidelines in New Delhi, including talks with Russia, China and Iran, with defence, energy, critical minerals and trade targets high on the agenda. India–Burundi/Global South Link: Modi met Burundi President Évariste Ndayishimiye (also AU chair) to reaffirm India–AU partnership and review India–Burundi cooperation, including agricultural modernisation, healthcare and capacity-building, while discussing the early convening of IAFS-IV. Power & Fuel Hit Business in Bujumbura: Prolonged outages are cutting service hours and forcing some firms to suspend operations, while the fuel crisis weakens the usual generator backup. Ebola Response Pressure in DRC: The Ebola outbreak keeps expanding across DRC provinces, with Africa CDC and WHO warning that staffing, funding and logistics are stretched. Refugee Livelihoods Under Strain in Kakuma: Burundian refugees in Kenya’s Kakuma camp fear new foreign-trader policies will threaten small businesses and raise safety risks. Services Trade Push: China’s CIFTIS in Beijing reported nearly 100 conferences and 1,200+ outcomes, signaling momentum for global services cooperation.

India-Africa Diplomacy: On the sidelines of the 18th BRICS Summit in New Delhi, PM Narendra Modi met Burundi President Évariste Ndayishimiye (also AU Chair) and reaffirmed India-AU partnership, discussed early convening of IAFS-IV, and reviewed cooperation in agriculture modernisation, healthcare and capacity-building. Trade & Mining Focus: Modi also met South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa, highlighting mining and critical minerals, infrastructure, food security and digital public infrastructure—signalling renewed push for investment links with Africa. Resilience Agenda: In the summit’s open session, Modi warned against weaponisation of technology and critical minerals and urged early warning systems and stronger resilience as crises spread across borders. Burundi’s Energy Strain: Back home, Bujumbura’s power cuts are paralyzing shops and services, with fuel shortages undermining generators and deepening the commercial slowdown. Regional Health Pressure: The Ebola outbreak in eastern DRC is expanding across provinces, with Africa CDC and WHO warning that staffing, funding and logistics are still under strain. Refugee Livelihoods: In Kakuma, Burundian refugees fear Kenya’s tightening on foreign small businesses will hit informal work and raise safety risks. Services Trade Momentum: China’s CIFTIS reported over 1,200 outcomes and growing interest in services cooperation—relevant for regional firms seeking new partnerships.

BRICS Summit—Trade & Industry: India’s BRICS chairmanship is pushing a “New Delhi Declaration” focused on trade, currency, energy security, trade finance, climate finance and disaster relief, with PM Modi warning against weaponising technology and critical minerals while also promoting BRICS digital agriculture and logistics supply-chain cooperation. BRICS Summit—Burundi in the room: Burundi’s President Evariste Ndayishimiye is among leaders attending in New Delhi, and Modi’s bilateral schedule reportedly includes meetings with Burundi alongside other Asia and Africa partners. Regional Integration—Kenya foreign-trader crackdown fallout: Kenya’s Sept. 2 directive restricting foreigners in small-scale businesses has triggered anxiety among Burundian traders in Nairobi, with embassy queues and calls for regularisation rather than expulsion; Kenya’s government says there is no blanket ban, but enforcement fears are straining East African solidarity. Burundi-Linked Development—Agriculture cooperation: Sri Lanka’s new female UNECA envoy says it is exploring a rice knowledge-exchange programme with Burundi, aiming to strengthen economic diplomacy and practical private-sector partnerships. Burundi-Adjacent Infrastructure—Aquatics support: World Aquatics’ Pools for All programme is delivering swimming-pool projects in Burundi and other countries, highlighting growing investment in sports facilities and water safety capacity.

BRICS Summit in India: Leaders from the expanded BRICS bloc (11 members) began the 18th summit in New Delhi, with discussions shaped by the US-Iran war’s energy shock and the Russia-Ukraine conflict’s trade fallout. Global South agenda: India is pushing “food, energy and supply chain security” and a focus on resilience, innovation, cooperation and sustainability, with a New Delhi Declaration expected. Burundi in the spotlight: Burundi President Evariste Ndayishimiye is among the heads of state attending, underlining Burundi’s growing diplomatic and economic outreach. Kenya trader crackdown ripple: Kenya’s Sept. 2 directive restricting foreign small-scale businesses has triggered anxiety among Burundian traders in Nairobi, embassy queues for travel documents, and reports of harassment fears—while officials insist there is no blanket ban and call for regularization and compliance with law. Local economy pressure: Burundian tuk-tuk and petty traders describe a sudden hostile climate, and Kenyans report disruptions as familiar foreign service providers disappear. Burundi-Africa economic link: Sri Lanka’s UNECA envoy highlights a rice knowledge-exchange programme with Burundi, pointing to practical cross-border agricultural cooperation.

BRICS Summit in Delhi: Leaders including Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, Iran’s Masoud Pezeshkian and Burundi President Evariste Ndayishimiye are arriving for the 18th BRICS Leaders’ Summit, with India pushing a Global South agenda on food, energy and supply-chain security amid wars and energy-market shocks. Burundi in the spotlight: Burundi’s president and the spouse of the Burundi leader are among the dignitaries in the tight security and high-profile programme around the summit. Services trade push (China): China’s CIFTIS in Beijing is drawing more multinational firms, signaling fresh opportunities for services partnerships. Sri Lanka-Africa economic ties: Sri Lanka’s new female UNECA envoy highlights practical cooperation with Africa, including a rice knowledge exchange with Burundi. Kenya foreign-trader crackdown fallout: Kenya says there is no blanket ban on foreigners in small business, but the Sept. 2 directive has triggered anxiety among Burundian traders, embassy visits, and calls for protection from harassment. Regional integration tension: The Kenya policy debate is raising fears of xenophobia and strain on EAC Common Market commitments. Burundi-linked development angle: World Aquatics’ Pools for All programme is expanding aquatic infrastructure across Africa, including Burundi.

BRICS Summit, New Delhi: Burundi President Evariste Ndayishimiye arrived in India for the 18th BRICS Summit, alongside leaders from Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Cuba, with WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala also on the ground. The agenda spotlights Global South priorities like food, energy and supply-chain security, as India positions BRICS as a growth platform amid trade tensions. Cross-border trade & jobs: Kenya moved to calm fears after President Ruto’s Sept. 2 directive targeting foreign small-scale businesses. Officials say there is No blanket ban—foreign traders can operate if they regularize status, register businesses and meet tax rules—yet reports of harassment and panic continue, including Burundians seeking documents at the embassy. Burundi business climate: In Burundi, the Tea sector is under pressure: production is down 30% over ten years, with abandoned plantations, fertilizer shortages and farmer demotivation driving the decline. Digital public infrastructure: A new push is emerging where countries package and export digital identity know-how, with Ethiopia’s Faydaverse highlighted as a model for DPI exports beyond vendor-led projects. Climate risk for industry & agriculture: El Niño is strengthening, with Flood risk expected across parts of East Africa including Burundi, raising concerns for farming, water systems and livelihoods.

Cross-Border Trade Shock in Kenya: Burundi nationals in Nairobi are scrambling after President William Ruto ordered the closure of small businesses and street vending run by foreigners, with a 90-day grace period later granted to regularize status; Burundian rights groups warn of discrimination and call for dialogue as reports of harassment, intimidation and violence surface. Policy Back-and-Forth: Kenya’s government says the crackdown targets foreigners without proper work permits, not all foreigners, while lawmakers and civil society push for clearer rules to protect regional integration and the rule of law. Burundi’s Administrative Bottlenecks: In Burundi, citizens at the Makamba One-Stop Shop report months-long waits for passports and travel documents, blamed on poorly maintained machines and power outages despite the center generating over a billion francs monthly. Tea Industry Pressure: Burundi’s tea sector is down 30% over the past decade, with abandoned plantations linked to low leaf prices, fertilizer shortages and weak farmer incentives; the Burundi Tea Board is considering higher purchase prices and more fertilizer supply. Regional Logistics Upgrade: Tanzania Railways is weighing more trains and wagons for Isaka Dry Port to boost inland cargo capacity for Burundi and other landlocked neighbors. BRICS in the Spotlight: As BRICS Summit 2026 opens in New Delhi on Sept 12-13, coverage highlights the agenda on food, energy and supply-chain security and lists leaders attending, including Burundi’s president.

Cross-Border Trade Tensions: Kenya’s crackdown on foreign small traders has spilled into Burundi’s business community, with Burundians in Nairobi rushing to the embassy for documents and reporting harassment and looting fears after President William Ruto’s directive; authorities now insist it’s not a blanket ban and that documented foreigners and those registering will be protected, while courts charge a man over alleged hate speech targeting Burundians. Human Rights Watch: Kenya’s KNCHR and regional legal groups warn enforcement must be lawful and non-discriminatory, as civil society says the policy could fuel xenophobia across the EAC. Burundi Admin Bottlenecks: In Makamba, a one-stop shop is generating over 1bn francs monthly but citizens still face months-long waits due to broken passport machines and power outages. Tea Industry Strain: Burundi’s tea output is down 30% over a decade, with over 1,000 hectares abandoned and farmers demanding higher leaf purchase prices and more fertilizer support. Regional Logistics Boost: Tanzania Railways Corporation plans to expand freight capacity at Isaka Dry Port to route more cargo from Rwanda, Burundi, DRC and Uganda without detouring to Dar es Salaam. Climate Risk for Agriculture: El Niño is strengthening, with forecasts of heavier rains and flood risk across East Africa including Burundi, raising concerns for crops, water and livelihoods.

Refugee Pressure & Business Fallout: Kenya’s refugee and asylum-seeker population hit 857,065 in June 2026, with Eritreans and Burundians among the fastest-growing groups—arriving as Nairobi tightens rules on foreign small businesses, leaving many Burundians scrambling for documents after Ruto’s crackdown. Legal Action Over Incitement: Kenya’s DPP charged “Engineer Kevin” (Kevin Odiwuor Otieno) over alleged hate speech targeting Burundian nationals, with the case set for mention in late October. Rights Watchdogs Push Back: Kenya’s KNCHR and East African civil society groups warned that enforcement must be lawful, fair, and non-discriminatory, while the East African Business Council urged protection for legitimate cross-border service providers. El Niño Risks for Industry & Food: Scientists warn El Niño could bring heavy rains and floods across parts of East Africa including Burundi, with knock-on effects for agriculture, water, health, and livelihoods. Burundi Mining Openness: Burundi opened its mining sector to foreign investment from exploration to end-use manufacturing, seeking Australian expertise as it targets minerals like lithium and coltan. Transport Trade Boost: Tanzania’s TRC plans to add rail services to Isaka Dry Port to move more cargo for traders from Rwanda, Burundi, DRC and Uganda.

Kenya Dairy Crunch: A prolonged dry spell is squeezing milk supplies in Nairobi, with supermarkets rationing purchases and prices rising for both long-life and fresh milk. Cross-Border Trade Shock: Kenya’s crackdown on foreigners in small-scale retail and hawking is triggering panic among Burundians in Nairobi—queues at the Burundi embassy, emergency travel documents, and Burundi planning buses to repatriate citizens. Rules Clarified: Kenya’s trade ministry says visa-free entry doesn’t equal work or business rights, warning of “misuse” of visa status and promising enforcement against unlicensed traders. Rights Pushback: The East Africa Law Society and KNCHR warn Kenya against harassment and detention without due process, as traders argue the policy targets livelihoods. Burundi Mining Drive: Burundi is opening its mining sector to investment from exploration to end-use manufacturing, seeking expertise (including lithium) and aiming to shift from artisanal output to industrial production. Energy for Households: A Spain-linked project is promoting solar cookers in Burundi to cut firewood and charcoal use and slow deforestation. Regional Diplomacy: Uganda and Kenya open talks over traders affected by the crackdown, while Burundi raises diplomatic concerns over mistreatment reports.

Burundi Mining Push: Burundi says it is opening its mining sector to foreign investment from exploration through end-use manufacturing, aiming to shift from artisan production to industrial output and reduce reliance on raw exports, with lithium talks involving an Australian partner. Energy for Industry & Households: A Spain-linked project is promoting solar cookers in Burundi to cut deforestation driven by firewood and charcoal demand, training local engineers to build and deploy the technology. Regional Trade Shock (Kenya): Kenya’s crackdown on foreigners in small-scale retail and hawking is driving Burundians to seek documents and return home; Kenya’s trade ministry stresses visa-free entry doesn’t grant work rights, while the East Africa Law Society warns against harassment and detention. Burundi–Kenya Logistics: Burundi confirms it will send buses to repatriate citizens from Kenya and issue free laissez-passer documents via its Nairobi embassy. Food Supply Chain: DP World and WFP delivered 5,000 tonnes of rice into the region via Dar es Salaam and onward logistics to support humanitarian operations in Burundi, DRC and Rwanda. Women & Youth in Peace: In Bujumbura, Burundi hosted a session urging stronger women and young women participation in peace negotiations and access to justice, framing peace as something built daily across generations.

Mining Investment Push: Burundi is opening its mining sector to full-cycle investment, from exploration to end-use manufacturing, and is in talks with an Australian-listed firm over a lithium permit, aiming to shift from low-scale artisanal output to industrial production. Regional Trade & Mobility Shock: Kenya’s crackdown on foreigners running small businesses is driving Burundians to rush documents and travel home; Burundi says it will repatriate citizens with buses and free laissez-passer papers as police warn against harassment. Work Rights Clarification: Kenya’s trade ministry says visa-free entry doesn’t grant the right to work or trade, targeting “misuse” of tourist/investor status and warning of enforcement against unlicensed retail activity. Food Supply & Logistics: DP World and WFP delivered 5,000 tonnes of rice to Burundi, DRC and Rwanda via Dar es Salaam and overland routes, supporting emergency food assistance amid acute insecurity. Energy for Households: A Spanish-backed project is promoting solar cookers in Burundi to cut reliance on firewood and charcoal, tackling deforestation while offering practical cooking alternatives. Fertilizer Shortage in Bubanza: Farmers in Bubanza report persistent chemical fertilizer delays since January 2026, with urea prices soaring on the black market versus subsidized rates. Regional Connectivity: Tanzania and DRC plan to fast-track a rail link through Burundi and a fibre-optic cable across Lake Tanganyika, boosting transport and digital trade routes.

Kenya Crackdown on Foreign Traders: Kenya’s trade ministry says visa-free entry and eTA exemptions don’t grant foreigners the right to work or run businesses, as President William Ruto’s deadline pushes unlicensed small shops and hawking to shut down—sparking queues and anxiety in Nairobi markets. Burundi Repatriation Push: Burundi’s foreign ministry says it is preparing buses to repatriate citizens from Kenya and will issue free laissez-passer documents via its Nairobi embassy, as crowds gather at the embassy and at bus stations. Regional Security and Compliance: Police in Nairobi warn the public against harassing “perceived illegal foreigners,” while Kenya insists enforcement targets permit and status violations, not blanket attacks. Fertilizer Shortage in Bubanza: Farmers in Bubanza report persistent chemical fertilizer delays since January 2026, with urea reportedly far pricier on the black market than the official subsidized rate. Clean Energy for Households: Spain-linked training in Burundi is promoting solar cookers to cut reliance on firewood and charcoal, aiming to reduce deforestation. Food Aid Logistics: DP World and WFP delivered 5,000 tonnes of rice to Burundi, DRC and Rwanda to support emergency food assistance amid worsening hunger pressures.

Work Permits & Trade Rules: Kenya’s Ministry clarifies that visa-free entry and eTA exemptions do not allow foreigners to work, trade, or run businesses; enforcement will target people who entered as tourists but started retail or other activities. Road & Land Acquisition: Kenya’s Mau Summit toll road design changes have triggered emergency land purchases under “early entry,” with new interchanges and structures driving added costs to the Sh183.7bn project. Clean Cooking for Burundi: Spain’s industrial training partner is helping Burundi manufacture solar cookers to cut firewood/charcoal use and slow deforestation. Food Aid Logistics: DP World and WFP delivered 5,000 tonnes of rice to Burundi, DRC and Rwanda via Dar es Salaam and regional overland transport. Fertilizer Shortage in Burundi: Farmers in Bubanza report delayed distribution of fertilizers they already paid for, with urea on the black market far above the subsidized price. Refugee Self-Reliance: Burundi’s Musasa and Kinama refugee households receive capital (via WFP/World Bank) to start income activities, mainly agriculture and livestock. Regional Transport & Trade: Tanzania and DRC plan to fast-track an SGR link through Burundi plus a fibre-optic cable across Lake Tanganyika. Cross-Border Bottleneck: Trucks queued at Busia after Kenya’s cargo scanner broke down, delaying clearance for goods bound for the DRC.

Humanitarian Logistics: DP World and WFP delivered 5,000 tonnes of rice to Burundi, DRC and Rwanda, moving cargo from India to Dar es Salaam then onward by regional road links to support emergency food assistance. Energy & Environment: Spain’s CIFP Tecnológico Industrial de León is helping Burundi manufacture solar cookers and ovens under a deforestation-cutting programme, offering households an alternative to firewood and charcoal. Agribusiness Pressure: Farmers in Bubanza report a persistent chemical fertilizer shortage since January 2026, with urea reportedly appearing on the black market at far above the subsidized price, threatening yields and farm operations. Regional Food Security Risk: New analysis links climate-driven harvest declines and rising food insecurity to higher chances of instability, as droughts, extreme weather and conflict disrupt supply chains and raise farm input costs. Trade & Transport Disruption: Trucks queued at Kenya’s Busia border after a cargo scanner broke down, delaying customs clearance and raising transit costs for shipments into the region. Refugee Livelihoods: In Muyinga and eastern Burundi, 907 refugee households in Musasa and Kinama are receiving capital to start agriculture and livestock income activities as aid declines. Infrastructure Watch: Kenya’s state is making emergency land purchases for the Mau Summit toll road after design changes add interchanges and bridges, using “early entry” acquisitions to protect timelines. Burundi-Linked Connectivity: Tanzania and DRC plan to fast-track a Standard Gauge Railway link through Burundi and a fibre-optic cable across Lake Tanganyika to improve transport and digital access.

Fertilizer Crisis in Burundi: Farmers in Bubanza say chemical fertilizers they paid for since January 2026 still haven’t been delivered, pushing rice production down and driving urea prices to over 350,000 Burundian francs on the black market versus 66,000 officially. Food Security & Conflict Risk: New research links climate-driven farm declines and spikes in world agricultural prices to higher chances of civil conflict, warning that droughts, El Niño and war-related supply disruptions could worsen instability. East Africa Grain Pressure: Kenya’s maize and wheat output is hit by a dry spell, raising import plans and prices across the region, while financing for climate and agribusiness value chains is announced in Kigali. Regional Transport & Connectivity: Tanzania and DRC agree to fast-track a Standard Gauge Railway link through Burundi and a fibre-optic cable across Lake Tanganyika, aiming to boost trade and digital access. Kenya Trade Crackdown: President William Ruto orders foreigners running small hawking and retail businesses to shut down from Sept. 7, while fast-tracking a Local Content Bill to reserve certain trade areas for Kenyans. Lake Tanganyika Fisheries: Tanzania says fish stocks in Lake Tanganyika have fallen sharply and is stepping up protection of breeding grounds and enforcement, including research with Burundi, DRC and Zambia.